FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.79 – 136.59

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.5 ±13.9

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 27.58Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 20Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 11.21Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.9 ±13.3

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 31.57Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 36.66Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 68.36Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8385, 11527, 5282

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8385, 11527, 5282

Auto

22.7 36%

Teleop

30.0 48%

Endgame

9.5 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6610, 7772, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6610, 7772, 5561

Auto

27.6 21%

Teleop

80.8 63%

Endgame

20.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score136.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.8
Score range: 36–160
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 126.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.5Season APEX203.9

22.7Auto27.6

30Teleop80.8

9.5Endgame20.2

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	20	65
endgame	12	40
foul	0	15
total	50	146

Result

Final score

50 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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