FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.92 – 82.81

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.1 ±13.3

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -9.88Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 19.18Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 18.62Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.7 ±11.1

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 35.61Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 46.4Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 0.8Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10665, 10587, 5150

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10665, 10587, 5150

Auto

9.8 32%

Teleop

8.3 27%

Endgame

12.8 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9242, 70, 8193

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9242, 70, 8193

Auto

16.5 21%

Teleop

47.8 60%

Endgame

15.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score27.9pts

Blue projected score82.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.9
Score range: 5–106
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.1Season APEX349.7

9.8Auto16.5

8.3Teleop47.8

12.8Endgame15.2

38Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	12
teleop	17	54
endgame	13	15
foul	0	0
total	37	81

Result

Final score

37 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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