FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.03 – 164.56

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.5 ±13.3

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 38.83Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 66.8Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 66.4Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±12.8

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 25.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 120.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 18.31Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 314, 1322, 5612

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 314, 1322, 5612

Auto

27.2 16%

Teleop

100.8 59%

Endgame

42.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10547, 894, 7784

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10547, 894, 7784

Auto

29.0 19%

Teleop

99.2 64%

Endgame

27.8 18%

Strengths

· 894 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172pts

Blue projected score164.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 142–195
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.5Season APEX238.7

27.2Auto29

100.8Teleop99.2

42.5Endgame27.8

47Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	44
teleop	89	93
endgame	36	49
foul	0	0
total	156	186

Result

Final score

156 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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