FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.22 – 47.85

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179 ±12.8

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 20.12Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 14.08Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -18.98Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±13.3

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 6.42Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX -4.94Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 46.37Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5527, 6085, 10659

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 6085, 10659

Auto

-0.5 0%

Teleop

2.0 13%

Endgame

13.4 90%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5214, 9697, 9648

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5214, 9697, 9648

Auto

13.1 30%

Teleop

18.2 41%

Endgame

12.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15.2pts

Blue projected score47.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.6
Score range: -8–71
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 128.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179Season APEX171.8

-0.5Auto13.1

2Teleop18.2

13.4Endgame12.6

31Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	11	31
endgame	5	12
foul	5	0
total	34	57

Result

Final score

34 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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