FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

445.81 – 142.2

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

399 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.7 ±9.3

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 206.63Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 135.1Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 104.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.9 ±11.7

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 89.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 26.34Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 26.19Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2337, 68, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2337, 68, 5660

Auto

56.8 13%

Teleop

278.3 63%

Endgame

104.6 24%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 10667, 5235

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 10667, 5235

Auto

19.0 13%

Teleop

77.0 53%

Endgame

49.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score445.8pts

Blue projected score142.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 303.6
Score range: 120–468
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.7Season APEX366.9

56.8Auto19

278.3Teleop77

104.6Endgame49

85Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	15
teleop	251	65
endgame	50	67
foul	30	10
total	399	157

Result

Final score

399 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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