FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.46 – 162.06

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.8 ±12.4

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -1.04Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 104.29Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 27.21Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.7 ±12.8

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 12.15Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 24.19Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 125.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5517, 1684, 10547

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5517, 1684, 10547

Auto

23.9 18%

Teleop

74.2 56%

Endgame

34.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11458, 7784, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11458, 7784, 5046

Auto

32.3 21%

Teleop

84.8 55%

Endgame

38.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.5pts

Blue projected score162.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.6
Score range: 104–188
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.8Season APEX236.7

23.9Auto32.3

74.2Teleop84.8

34Endgame38

39Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	25
teleop	40	76
endgame	24	31
foul	0	15
total	72	147

Result

Final score

72 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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