FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.42 – 93.02

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±12.4

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 85.72Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -3.88Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 3.58Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.6 ±10.5

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 67.2Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX -1.39Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 27.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9757, 5517, 11458

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9757, 5517, 11458

Auto

10.3 12%

Teleop

37.0 45%

Endgame

35.4 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 494, 5167, 8767

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 5167, 8767

Auto

14.2 16%

Teleop

55.2 61%

Endgame

20.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.4pts

Blue projected score93pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.6
Score range: 62–116
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.7Season APEX391.6

10.3Auto14.2

37Teleop55.2

35.4Endgame20.5

43Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	29
teleop	67	34
endgame	52	41
foul	0	0
total	129	104

Result

Final score

129 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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