FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.81 – 149

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.3 ±13.3

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 24.13Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 45.02Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 4.66Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.7 ±12.2

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 11.93Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 122.89Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 14.18Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11527, 314, 8193

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11527, 314, 8193

Auto

20.9 28%

Teleop

38.9 52%

Endgame

14.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9207, 894, 7597

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9207, 894, 7597

Auto

28.0 19%

Teleop

81.6 55%

Endgame

37.9 26%

Strengths

· 894 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.8pts

Blue projected score149pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.2
Score range: 51–172
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.3Season APEX255.7

20.9Auto28

38.9Teleop81.6

14.7Endgame37.9

13Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	39
teleop	18	60
endgame	2	44
foul	0	0
total	37	143

Result

Final score

37 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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