FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.67 – 111.26

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.8 ±12.2

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 7.63Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 124.51Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 62.53Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.2 ±12.7

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 63.54Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 39.18Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 8.54Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5282, 5046, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5282, 5046, 5561

Auto

41.8 22%

Teleop

102.8 55%

Endgame

43.1 23%

Strengths

· 5046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1322, 9648, 4998

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1322, 9648, 4998

Auto

10.0 9%

Teleop

66.8 63%

Endgame

29.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.7pts

Blue projected score111.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: 89–217
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.8Season APEX173.2

41.8Auto10

102.8Teleop66.8

43.1Endgame29

89Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	16
teleop	142	86
endgame	46	43
foul	0	5
total	229	150

Result

Final score

229 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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