FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.93 – 51.31

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.1 ±13.3

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 35.57Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 67.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX -1.72Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±12.4

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 41.66Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 26.46Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -16.81Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9242, 5612, 9697

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9242, 5612, 9697

Auto

26.4 27%

Teleop

44.3 46%

Endgame

25.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 70, 5697, 10659

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 70, 5697, 10659

Auto

11.6 23%

Teleop

25.4 50%

Endgame

13.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.9pts

Blue projected score51.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.6
Score range: 28–124
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.1Season APEX285.3

26.4Auto11.6

44.3Teleop25.4

25.7Endgame13.8

18Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	61	22
endgame	15	22
foul	0	5
total	93	66

Result

Final score

93 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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