FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.72 – 168.51

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.9 ±13.3

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 0.45Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 37.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 24.01Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±12.4

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 131.73Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 2.08Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 34.7Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5517, 6610, 5150

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5517, 6610, 5150

Auto

11.1 17%

Teleop

47.3 73%

Endgame

6.5 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 68, 5214, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 5214, 7772

Auto

35.1 21%

Teleop

98.2 59%

Endgame

32.0 19%

Strengths

· 68 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.7pts

Blue projected score168.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.8
Score range: 39–192
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.9Season APEX354.2

11.1Auto35.1

47.3Teleop98.2

6.5Endgame32

10Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	48
teleop	1	99
endgame	7	36
foul	5	15
total	27	198

Result

Final score

27 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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