FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

18.23 – 122.05

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.2 ±12.7

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 17.14Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 7.04Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX -5.95Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±12.4

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 89.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 3.59Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 29.42Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5235, 7597, 5167

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5235, 7597, 5167

Auto

16.2 79%

Teleop

7.3 36%

Endgame

-3.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 11458, 8385

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 11458, 8385

Auto

22.5 18%

Teleop

58.0 46%

Endgame

45.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score18.2pts

Blue projected score122.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.8
Score range: -5–145
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.2Season APEX319.7

16.2Auto22.5

7.3Teleop58

-3.1Endgame45.2

56Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	22
teleop	21	61
endgame	35	45
foul	0	5
total	68	133

Result

Final score

68 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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