FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.49 – 112.72

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±12.8

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 27.54Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 20.09Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 103.86Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.7 ±12.4

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 18.04Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 22.59Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 72.09Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10667, 5527, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 5527, 5660

Auto

16.3 11%

Teleop

84.8 59%

Endgame

43.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7784, 10587, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7784, 10587, 494

Auto

20.1 18%

Teleop

60.9 56%

Endgame

27.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.5pts

Blue projected score112.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.8
Score range: 90–174
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.6Season APEX356.7

16.3Auto20.1

84.8Teleop60.9

43.1Endgame27.7

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	20
teleop	80	43
endgame	62	14
foul	0	20
total	151	97

Result

Final score

151 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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