FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.54 – 202.22

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.6 ±13.3

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 25.41Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 63.57Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX -4.44Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.6 ±12.4

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 17.58Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 59.6Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 125.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5697, 5561, 5214

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5697, 5561, 5214

Auto

21.3 26%

Teleop

44.3 55%

Endgame

14.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11527, 5612, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11527, 5612, 68

Auto

33.4 16%

Teleop

120.5 59%

Endgame

49.5 24%

Strengths

· 68 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.5pts

Blue projected score202.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.7
Score range: 63–224
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.6Season APEX369.6

21.3Auto33.4

44.3Teleop120.5

14.8Endgame49.5

34Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	50
teleop	51	148
endgame	29	56
foul	5	0
total	116	254

Result

Final score

116 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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