FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.15 – 177.17

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.6 ±13.9

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX -5.21Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 2.67Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 33.69Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.3 ±12.2

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 69.21Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 123.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -15.93Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11458, 7597, 6610

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11458, 7597, 6610

Auto

15.2 55%

Teleop

8.8 32%

Endgame

3.4 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1322, 5046, 10659

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1322, 5046, 10659

Auto

25.3 14%

Teleop

114.4 65%

Endgame

36.3 21%

Strengths

· 5046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.2pts

Blue projected score177.2pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146
Score range: 9–199
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.6Season APEX251.3

15.2Auto25.3

8.8Teleop114.4

3.4Endgame36.3

40Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	45	83
endgame	10	47
foul	0	15
total	76	165

Result

Final score

76 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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