FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.95 – 83.58

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222 ±12.8

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 13.98Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 20.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 63.11Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.1 ±12.4

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 66.54Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 9.75Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 7.29Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5282, 8767, 5612

/ 100 compat

Projected

98 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5282, 8767, 5612

Auto

21.8 23%

Teleop

49.4 51%

Endgame

25.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 494, 7597, 9697

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 7597, 9697

Auto

21.4 27%

Teleop

39.4 49%

Endgame

19.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.4
Score range: 58–124
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222Season APEX370.1

21.8Auto21.4

49.4Teleop39.4

25Endgame19.8

30Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	36	29
endgame	17	9
foul	0	0
total	69	55

Result

Final score

69 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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