FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.73 – 113.67

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.2 ±12.1

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 21.44Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 21.55Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 6.74Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.1 ±13.9

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 58.56Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 9.93Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 45.18Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5150, 5235, 8193

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5150, 5235, 8193

Auto

15.2 28%

Teleop

28.5 52%

Endgame

11.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 314, 5517, 10667

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 314, 5517, 10667

Auto

15.1 13%

Teleop

63.1 56%

Endgame

34.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.7pts

Blue projected score113.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.9
Score range: 27–137
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 125.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.2Season APEX193.1

15.2Auto15.1

28.5Teleop63.1

11.2Endgame34.8

11Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	14
teleop	20	24
endgame	12	7
foul	0	0
total	43	45

Result

Final score

43 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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