FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.33 – 78.17

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±12.8

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 29.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 8.33Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 21.79Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.8 ±13.3

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 38.38Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 4.86Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 34.93Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8767, 9697, 5527

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8767, 9697, 5527

Auto

9.5 16%

Teleop

28.6 47%

Endgame

22.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9242, 4998, 8385

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9242, 4998, 8385

Auto

17.6 24%

Teleop

28.7 39%

Endgame

27.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.3pts

Blue projected score78.2pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.8
Score range: 36–101
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 127.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.7Season APEX177.8

9.5Auto17.6

28.6Teleop28.7

22.2Endgame27.6

17Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	18
teleop	13	26
endgame	11	22
foul	0	10
total	30	76

Result

Final score

30 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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