FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.15 – 301.6

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.3 ±10.5

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 93.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 96.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 36.35Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.7 ±9.9

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 200.95Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 22.66Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 77.99Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 5660, 9648

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 5660, 9648

Auto

25.6 12%

Teleop

122.7 57%

Endgame

68.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2337, 9207, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2337, 9207, 9757

Auto

41.7 14%

Teleop

180.3 61%

Endgame

74.9 25%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.2pts

Blue projected score301.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.5
Score range: 204–324
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.3Season APEX528.7

25.6Auto41.7

122.7Teleop180.3

68Endgame74.9

0Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	33
teleop	143	163
endgame	76	100
foul	5	5
total	245	301

Result

Final score

245 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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