FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.13 – 64.94

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 67 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±9.8

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX -12.56Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 111.63Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 57.06Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.5 ±13.9

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 36.16Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 22.42Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 6.36Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6085, 894, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6085, 894, 494

Auto

35.6 23%

Teleop

100.9 64%

Endgame

20.7 13%

Strengths

· 894 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7772, 10587, 10547

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7772, 10587, 10547

Auto

20.7 37%

Teleop

23.8 42%

Endgame

11.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.1pts

Blue projected score64.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.2
Score range: 43–178
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.7Season APEX157.5

35.6Auto20.7

100.9Teleop23.8

20.7Endgame11.8

84Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	29
teleop	143	42
endgame	77	26
foul	5	0
total	258	97

Result

Final score

258 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 67 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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