FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.27 – 13.36

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.6 ±13.3

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 28.32Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 24.2Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 15.75Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.7 ±11.7

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 35.62Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX -6.29Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -15.97Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5235, 7784, 5282

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5235, 7784, 5282

Auto

15.2 25%

Teleop

38.6 63%

Endgame

7.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 70, 5167, 10665

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 70, 5167, 10665

Auto

8.0 47%

Teleop

8.5 49%

Endgame

0.7 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.3pts

Blue projected score13.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.9
Score range: -9–90
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.6Season APEX288.7

15.2Auto8

38.6Teleop8.5

7.3Endgame0.7

24Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	23	30
endgame	9	17
foul	0	0
total	46	62

Result

Final score

46 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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