FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.21 – 50.93

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.7 ±13.3

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 48.12Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 31.52Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 1.57Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.3 ±13.9

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 9.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 13.53Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 27.45Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5612, 6610, 8193

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5612, 6610, 8193

Auto

13.5 16%

Teleop

46.3 55%

Endgame

25.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4998, 5517, 5527

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4998, 5517, 5527

Auto

4.5 10%

Teleop

25.2 54%

Endgame

16.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.2pts

Blue projected score50.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 29–103
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 124.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.7Season APEX174.3

13.5Auto4.5

46.3Teleop25.2

25Endgame16.9

56Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	7
teleop	64	9
endgame	21	14
foul	15	0
total	123	30

Result

Final score

123 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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