FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.86 – 102.61

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.4 ±12.7

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 83.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 4.1Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 50.71Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.5 ±12.4

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 35.83Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 67.17Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -0.39Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1322, 5214, 9242

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1322, 5214, 9242

Auto

22.6 17%

Teleop

88.9 65%

Endgame

25.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10667, 9757, 7597

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 9757, 7597

Auto

22.4 25%

Teleop

37.9 42%

Endgame

30.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.9pts

Blue projected score102.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.3
Score range: 80–161
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.4Season APEX358.5

22.6Auto22.4

88.9Teleop37.9

25.3Endgame30.6

66Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	13
teleop	34	80
endgame	11	53
foul	5	0
total	66	146

Result

Final score

66 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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