FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.71 – 22.04

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256 ±12.8

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 125.34Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 41.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 26.48Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.9 ±12.7

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -24.51Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 40.34Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 6.21Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5046, 8385, 10587

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5046, 8385, 10587

Auto

29.7 16%

Teleop

108.6 58%

Endgame

50.4 27%

Strengths

· 5046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10659, 9648, 9207

/ 100 compat

Projected

22 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10659, 9648, 9207

Auto

1.7 14%

Teleop

-4.2 0%

Endgame

14.5 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.7pts

Blue projected score22pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.7
Score range: -1–217
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256Season APEX142.9

29.7Auto1.7

108.6Teleop-4.2

50.4Endgame14.5

54Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	7
teleop	84	37
endgame	58	23
foul	0	0
total	182	67

Result

Final score

182 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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