FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.86 – 0

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 117.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.7 ±11.2

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 55.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX -6.89Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 75.18Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±12.8

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX -12.92Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 8.3Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX -28.18Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 11527, 894

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1684, 11527, 894

Auto

18.5 14%

Teleop

71.2 55%

Endgame

40.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9697, 5282, 6085

/ 100 compat

Projected

-32.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9697, 5282, 6085

Auto

4.0 0%

Teleop

-22.8 75%

Endgame

-11.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.9pts

Blue projected score-32.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.9
Score range: -22–146
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.7Season APEX184.6

18.5Auto4

71.2Teleop-22.8

40Endgame-11.6

67Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	18
teleop	193	11
endgame	63	18
foul	0	0
total	311	47

Result

Final score

311 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 117.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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