FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.65 – 123.56

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 154.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.8 ±10.5

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 1.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 20.52Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 75.09Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.8 ±11.2

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 74.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 27.12Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 22.08Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8767, 5561, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8767, 5561, 68

Auto

15.7 17%

Teleop

61.6 66%

Endgame

16.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5660, 314, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 314, 70

Auto

20.2 18%

Teleop

73.9 64%

Endgame

21.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.7pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.9
Score range: 76–145
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 118.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.8Season APEX442.8

15.7Auto20.2

61.6Teleop73.9

16.3Endgame21.1

9Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	27
teleop	188	120
endgame	79	74
foul	0	0
total	308	221

Result

Final score

308 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 154.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.