FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.24 – 111.09

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.2 ±13.3

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 17.6Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -23.27Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 26.91Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.7 ±12.7

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 22.38Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 8.72Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 79.99Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5150, 10659, 10667

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5150, 10659, 10667

Auto

5.1 28%

Teleop

2.8 15%

Endgame

10.5 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5167, 5527, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5167, 5527, 5561

Auto

21.2 19%

Teleop

59.2 54%

Endgame

29.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score21.2pts

Blue projected score111.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.9
Score range: -5–137
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.2Season APEX211.7

5.1Auto21.2

2.8Teleop59.2

10.5Endgame29

52Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	16
teleop	13	48
endgame	8	14
foul	0	5
total	21	83

Result

Final score

21 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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