FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.88 – 241.99

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.4 ±12.4

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX -9.96Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 28.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 23.67Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.8 ±11.7

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 37.52Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 19.14Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 185.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11458, 494, 5697

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11458, 494, 5697

Auto

22.8 51%

Teleop

7.7 17%

Endgame

13.9 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7784, 5150, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

242 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7784, 5150, 2337

Auto

45.1 19%

Teleop

153.9 65%

Endgame

36.1 15%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.9pts

Blue projected score242pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -200.1
Score range: 21–263
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 116.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.4Season APEX370.8

22.8Auto45.1

7.7Teleop153.9

13.9Endgame36.1

33Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	37
teleop	67	176
endgame	31	56
foul	0	0
total	123	269

Result

Final score

123 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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