FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.66 – 83.45

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.3 ±13.9

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 7.32Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 10.55Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 60.79Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165 ±12.7

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 3.9Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 15.96Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 63.59Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4998, 10665, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4998, 10665, 7772

Auto

19.2 26%

Teleop

35.6 48%

Endgame

19.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5167, 10547, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5167, 10547, 1322

Auto

25.0 29%

Teleop

53.3 62%

Endgame

8.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.7pts

Blue projected score83.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.8
Score range: 58–104
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 117.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.3Season APEX165

19.2Auto25

35.6Teleop53.3

19.5Endgame8.2

28Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	15
teleop	4	87
endgame	9	23
foul	5	0
total	29	125

Result

Final score

29 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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