FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.04 – 78.72

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.8 ±11.2

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 76.22Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 10.18Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 28.64Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.8 ±12.4

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 48.41Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 35.89Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX -5.58Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10587, 8767, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

115 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10587, 8767, 70

Auto

17.4 15%

Teleop

75.2 66%

Endgame

22.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6610, 1684, 5214

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6610, 1684, 5214

Auto

17.6 22%

Teleop

41.2 52%

Endgame

19.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115pts

Blue projected score78.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.3
Score range: 58–136
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.8Season APEX337.8

17.4Auto17.6

75.2Teleop41.2

22.2Endgame19.9

0Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	19
teleop	37	79
endgame	28	44
foul	0	0
total	77	142

Result

Final score

77 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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