FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.71 – 54.05

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.9 ±11.7

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 11.11Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 12.6Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 49Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.2 ±12.8

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 45.6Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 48.76Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX -40.31Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7784, 8193, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7784, 8193, 68

Auto

3.0 5%

Teleop

34.5 58%

Endgame

22.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7597, 8385, 6085

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7597, 8385, 6085

Auto

14.2 25%

Teleop

36.4 64%

Endgame

6.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.7pts

Blue projected score54.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.7
Score range: 33–94
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 118.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.9Season APEX188.2

3Auto14.2

34.5Teleop36.4

22.3Endgame6.1

18Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	23
teleop	121	22
endgame	33	16
foul	0	0
total	185	61

Result

Final score

185 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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