FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.58 – 168.48

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.1 ±11.2

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 47.53Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 6.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 114.88Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.8 ±12.2

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 31.74Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 99.08Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 37.66Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5527, 494, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 494, 5046

Auto

23.9 15%

Teleop

102.6 64%

Endgame

34.5 21%

Strengths

· 5046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5561, 894, 10665

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5561, 894, 10665

Auto

37.7 23%

Teleop

97.0 58%

Endgame

31.4 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.6pts

Blue projected score168.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.1
Score range: 147–190
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 116.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.1Season APEX278.8

23.9Auto37.7

102.6Teleop97

34.5Endgame31.4

147Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	21
teleop	124	70
endgame	51	28
foul	0	0
total	221	119

Result

Final score

221 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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