FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.12 – 231.89

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.3 ±13.9

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 11.98Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 24.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 35.77Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±11.7

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 33.9Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 160.24Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 37.75Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9697, 10547, 5697

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9697, 10547, 5697

Auto

15.1 21%

Teleop

36.9 52%

Endgame

18.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9648, 2337, 10667

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9648, 2337, 10667

Auto

35.9 16%

Teleop

148.0 65%

Endgame

43.7 19%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.1pts

Blue projected score231.9pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.8
Score range: 52–252
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.3Season APEX384.5

15.1Auto35.9

36.9Teleop148

18.9Endgame43.7

52Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	48
teleop	6	166
endgame	8	71
foul	0	15
total	35	300

Result

Final score

35 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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