FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.61 – 146.8

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.6 ±12.7

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 56.83Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 4.42Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.36Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.6 ±12.8

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 88.53Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 12.45Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 45.82Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9242, 9207, 11458

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9242, 9207, 11458

Auto

17.6 27%

Teleop

27.5 43%

Endgame

19.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5660, 5282, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 5282, 7772

Auto

27.5 20%

Teleop

90.7 66%

Endgame

20.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.6pts

Blue projected score146.8pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.2
Score range: 53–167
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 113.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.6Season APEX283.6

17.6Auto27.5

27.5Teleop90.7

19.5Endgame20.1

114Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	27
teleop	26	91
endgame	35	38
foul	0	15
total	83	171

Result

Final score

83 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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