FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.96 – 37.53

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.3 ±12.4

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 197.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 26.78Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 26.35Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.1 ±13.9

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 36.83Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 10.29Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -9.59Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2337, 5697, 8385

/ 100 compat

Projected

251 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2337, 5697, 8385

Auto

53.3 22%

Teleop

141.5 58%

Endgame

50.2 20%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 314, 5214, 10665

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 314, 5214, 10665

Auto

18.3 46%

Teleop

11.2 28%

Endgame

10.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score251pts

Blue projected score37.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213.4
Score range: 12–277
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.3Season APEX155.1

53.3Auto18.3

141.5Teleop11.2

50.2Endgame10.3

25Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	23
teleop	177	21
endgame	59	17
foul	0	0
total	281	61

Result

Final score

281 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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