FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.08 – 116.65

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.2 ±12.4

7597Team HorsePowered

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 51.27Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -19.33Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 25.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.7 ±12.7

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 49.55Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 26.2Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 40.9Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7597, 10659, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7597, 10659, 1684

Auto

14.0 25%

Teleop

27.0 47%

Endgame

16.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5561, 8193, 5517

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5561, 8193, 5517

Auto

21.9 18%

Teleop

77.4 65%

Endgame

19.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.1pts

Blue projected score116.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.6
Score range: 36–138
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.2Season APEX219.7

14Auto21.9

27Teleop77.4

16.1Endgame19.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	5
teleop	6	29
endgame	20	21
foul	5	5
total	40	60

Result

Final score

40 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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