FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.91 – 11.54

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 102.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.6 ±11.7

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 7.44Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 91.3Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 27.17Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.5 ±13.9

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 17.7Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -13.78Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 7.62Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8767, 5046, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8767, 5046, 7772

Auto

28.0 23%

Teleop

76.3 61%

Endgame

19.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5612, 10547, 10667

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5612, 10547, 10667

Auto

1.8 18%

Teleop

0.6 6%

Endgame

7.7 76%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.9pts

Blue projected score11.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.4
Score range: -9–147
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.6Season APEX216.5

28Auto1.8

76.3Teleop0.6

19.8Endgame7.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	32
teleop	126	63
endgame	31	38
foul	10	5
total	204	138

Result

Final score

204 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 102.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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