FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.77 – 218.09

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.2 ±12.7

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 23.78Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5214The Mighty CavBots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 4.81Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 25.18Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±11.7

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 35.46Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 96.43Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 86.2Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5150, 5214, 9207

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5150, 5214, 9207

Auto

17.8 32%

Teleop

25.0 45%

Endgame

12.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9697, 9757, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9697, 9757, 1322

Auto

32.5 15%

Teleop

131.4 60%

Endgame

53.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.8pts

Blue projected score218.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.3
Score range: 33–239
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.2Season APEX349.4

17.8Auto32.5

25Teleop131.4

12.5Endgame53.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	8
teleop	11	79
endgame	3	45
foul	5	0
total	31	132

Result

Final score

31 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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