FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.37 – 81.58

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±12.4

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 27.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 21.12Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 18.68Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.7 ±13.9

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 25.66Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 30.91Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 25.01Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 68, 10665, 5527

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 10665, 5527

Auto

12.2 19%

Teleop

33.3 51%

Endgame

19.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11458, 5282, 314

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11458, 5282, 314

Auto

21.9 29%

Teleop

33.5 44%

Endgame

21.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.4pts

Blue projected score81.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.2
Score range: 46–103
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.4Season APEX141.7

12.2Auto21.9

33.3Teleop33.5

19.9Endgame21

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	24
teleop	91	21
endgame	45	18
foul	0	0
total	155	63

Result

Final score

155 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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