FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.13 – 80.37

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

52 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.6 ±11.7

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX -8.42Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 24.87Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 21.68Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.9 ±13.3

6610Robot Roll Call

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 21.68Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 4.12Rank 41Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 54.57Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10547, 70, 9207

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10547, 70, 9207

Auto

6.6 18%

Teleop

19.9 55%

Endgame

9.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6610, 10659, 5235

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6610, 10659, 5235

Auto

8.1 10%

Teleop

49.7 63%

Endgame

20.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.1pts

Blue projected score80.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: 16–102
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 119.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.6Season APEX134.9

6.6Auto8.1

19.9Teleop49.7

9.7Endgame20.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	10
teleop	28	12
endgame	3	11
foul	5	0
total	52	33

Result

Final score

52 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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