FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.17 – 133.35

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.8 ±12.8

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 24.02Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 15.43Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 35.72Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.7 ±11.6

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 62.73Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9242Hamady Hawks

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 60.66Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 9.96Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8767, 11527, 7784

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8767, 11527, 7784

Auto

11.5 17%

Teleop

39.8 58%

Endgame

17.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 894, 9242, 5150

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 894, 9242, 5150

Auto

18.3 14%

Teleop

78.7 61%

Endgame

31.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.2pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.2
Score range: 53–155
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.8Season APEX292.7

11.5Auto18.3

39.8Teleop78.7

17.6Endgame31

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	39
teleop	12	99
endgame	0	44
foul	0	0
total	20	182

Result

Final score

20 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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