FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.72 – 105.18

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 86.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.2 ±12.2

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX -3.66Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 17.38Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 42Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.7 ±11.7

5167Vi-Bots

Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 25.11Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 38.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 42Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8193, 9697, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8193, 9697, 5046

Auto

11.5 22%

Teleop

25.6 50%

Endgame

14.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5167, 68, 11458

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5167, 68, 11458

Auto

13.1 13%

Teleop

61.1 62%

Endgame

24.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.7pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.5
Score range: 34–127
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.2Season APEX317.7

11.5Auto13.1

25.6Teleop61.1

14.3Endgame24

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	18
teleop	101	17
endgame	40	9
foul	0	0
total	168	44

Result

Final score

168 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 86.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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