FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.96 – 144.16

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 94.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.3 ±12.2

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 13.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 42.86Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 10.96Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.9 ±13.3

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 59.82Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 63.42Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5612Robo-Raptors

Season APEX 81Event APEX 20.92Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5660, 1322, 5517

/ 100 compat

Projected

67 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 1322, 5517

Auto

9.7 15%

Teleop

42.7 64%

Endgame

14.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9648, 8385, 5612

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9648, 8385, 5612

Auto

21.6 15%

Teleop

84.4 60%

Endgame

33.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67pts

Blue projected score144.2pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.2
Score range: 46–165
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.3Season APEX188.9

9.7Auto21.6

42.7Teleop84.4

14Endgame33.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	16
teleop	155	51
endgame	41	42
foul	0	0
total	221	109

Result

Final score

221 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 94.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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