FIM District Kearsley Event presented by BAE Systems

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

358.67 – 242.67

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

486 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.6 ±9.3

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 143.47Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 22.97Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 192.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±10.5

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 95.75Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 38.33Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 108.59Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 68, 6085, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 6085, 2337

Auto

63.6 18%

Teleop

223.9 63%

Endgame

66.3 19%

Strengths

· 2337 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9757, 9648, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9757, 9648, 5660

Auto

19.5 8%

Teleop

139.4 59%

Endgame

75.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score358.7pts

Blue projected score242.7pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116
Score range: 218–384
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 770 vs event baseline 138.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.6Season APEX454.1

63.6Auto19.5

223.9Teleop139.4

66.3Endgame75.4

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	20
teleop	294	162
endgame	112	97
foul	0	5
total	486	284

Result

Final score

486 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 pts

Match videos

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