FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362.32 – 127.9

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 86.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.1 ±11

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 147.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 25.87Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 188.51Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.7 ±12.7

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 42.46Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 45.26Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 40.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5660, 8193, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 8193, 5114

Auto

67.2 19%

Teleop

204.2 58%

Endgame

83.6 24%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10667, 6548, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 6548, 1322

Auto

31.7 25%

Teleop

76.5 61%

Endgame

18.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score362.3pts

Blue projected score127.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 234.4
Score range: 101–389
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 149.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.1Season APEX208.7

67.2Auto31.7

204.2Teleop76.5

83.6Endgame18.2

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	23
teleop	107	26
endgame	31	4
foul	30	0
total	265	53

Result

Final score

265 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 86.1 pts

Match videos

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