FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.13 – 172.48

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.3 ±12.7

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 32.14Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 54.62Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2145HAZMATS

Season APEX 69Event APEX 31.37Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.8 ±11

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 25.75Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 54.04Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 92.69Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10690, 9237, 2145

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10690, 9237, 2145

Auto

25.2 22%

Teleop

54.4 47%

Endgame

37.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9207, 10978, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9207, 10978, 5229

Auto

33.5 20%

Teleop

100.3 59%

Endgame

35.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.1pts

Blue projected score172.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.3
Score range: 91–199
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.3Season APEX274.8

25.2Auto33.5

54.4Teleop100.3

37.1Endgame35.6

1Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	54	99
endgame	50	40
foul	15	0
total	139	164

Result

Final score

139 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Match videos

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