FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.32 – 118.55

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 106.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.5 ±9.9

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 123.41Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 31.6Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 138.31Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.7 ±12.7

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 39.03Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 43.18Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 36.34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9757, 5084, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9757, 5084, 70

Auto

35.8 12%

Teleop

175.6 60%

Endgame

81.5 28%

Strengths

· 70 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10667, 6548, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 6548, 1322

Auto

30.4 26%

Teleop

68.7 59%

Endgame

17.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293.3pts

Blue projected score118.6pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.8
Score range: 92–320
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 148.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.5Season APEX208.7

35.8Auto30.4

175.6Teleop68.7

81.5Endgame17.6

37Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	36
teleop	75	98
endgame	28	22
foul	0	0
total	118	156

Result

Final score

118 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 106.4 pts

Match videos

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