FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

329.21 – 146.55

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

477 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.1 ±11

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 137.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 15.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 176.13Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±11.6

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 45.6Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 62.95Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 38Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5660, 8193, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 8193, 5114

Auto

66.5 21%

Teleop

180.3 56%

Endgame

73.1 23%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4130, 4810, 9776

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4130, 4810, 9776

Auto

21.4 15%

Teleop

85.4 59%

Endgame

38.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score329.2pts

Blue projected score146.6pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 182.7
Score range: 121–355
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 146.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.1Season APEX245

66.5Auto21.4

180.3Teleop85.4

73.1Endgame38.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	33
teleop	286	53
endgame	120	40
foul	0	5
total	477	131

Result

Final score

477 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 pts

Match videos

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