FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.57 – 124.01

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 656.3 ±8.7

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 48.77Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 161.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 129.58Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.3 ±12.7

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 35.32Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 55.11Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2145HAZMATS

Season APEX 69Event APEX 33.58Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7598, 494, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 494, 68

Auto

55.6 16%

Teleop

220.6 65%

Endgame

63.4 19%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10690, 9237, 2145

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10690, 9237, 2145

Auto

25.5 21%

Teleop

61.4 50%

Endgame

35.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score339.6pts

Blue projected score124pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 215.6
Score range: 98–366
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 145.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

656.3Season APEX206.3

55.6Auto25.5

220.6Teleop61.4

63.4Endgame35.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	24
teleop	174	15
endgame	58	41
foul	5	0
total	315	80

Result

Final score

315 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Match videos

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