FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.01 – 32.02

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±9.9

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 62.01Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 44.57Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 39.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.8 ±13.9

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 12.54Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 22.9Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX -3.42Rank 42Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 862, 9776, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

146 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 9776, 70

Auto

26.5 18%

Teleop

82.4 56%

Endgame

37.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5517, 9237, 5532

/ 100 compat

Projected

32 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5517, 9237, 5532

Auto

16.0 50%

Teleop

13.9 43%

Endgame

2.1 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146pts

Blue projected score32pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114
Score range: 7–171
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 138.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.7Season APEX159.8

26.5Auto16

82.4Teleop13.9

37.2Endgame2.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	22
teleop	157	5
endgame	49	10
foul	5	0
total	263	37

Result

Final score

263 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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